Question

Is the rate for natural disasters increasing, I recently heard it has increased by 62%.

Yours is a difficult question. The property loss from natural disasters has increased dramatically (compare the cost of recent earthquakes or hurricanes, for example, with earlier ones), but that is a consequence increasing value of urban centers, infrastructure, etc. Insurance companies, in particular, see their level of “risk” increasing. However, it is not clear that the frequency or severity of natural disasters has increased. The reason this is a difficult questions to answer is that the statistics on fatalities are dominated by the very rare, very large events. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is an example of something almost unprecedented. The recent earthquakes in China and Pakistan have also been terribly destructive of both property and lives, but we need only look back to the 1976 Tangshan earthquake for much greater damage, with perhaps a quarter of a million people killed. Another comparison with the past is the recent severe storm damage on Galveston Island of Texas. This was very bad, but very much less than the nearly 10,000 people killed on Galveston in 1900 by similar hurricane. Thus the bottom line is that there is no indication that natural disasters are increasing, but (a) their cost in property damage is increasing, and (b) the statistics are skewed by a few very rare, severe events.

David Morrison
NAI Senior Scientist
March 18, 2009