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Question
how does the stability of technological civilizations affect the probability that they can be detected from Earth?
The stability or lifetime of a technological civilization is a key unknown parameter in the Drake Equation. In fact, with common assumptions made about the values of other factors in the Drake Equation, the answer comes out very roughly to be N = L, where N is the number of technological civilizations in our Galaxy and L is their typical lifetime in years. That is, if the typical lifetime is 1000 years, there are very roughly 1000 such technological civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time. The more such civilizations there are, the closer some of them are likely to be to Earth and the hence the more likely we could find them. (Incidentally, Frank Drake's California auto license is N = L.) David Morrison
NAI Senior Scientist
June 1, 2007
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